3/17/2006

Have the Neocons Calculated The Total Cost Of War With Iran?

As the Bush administration begins it's propaganda build up for it's impending invasion of Iran, the time is now to not only ask what it will cost, but what it will cause as well.
First I think it's important to look back at Iraq for a number of reasons. One is the claims being made against Iran mirroring claims made against Iraq. The IAEA has found no evidence of a weapons program in Iran. While Iran has ties to Hizbollah,defined as a terrorist group for exercising it's internationally recognized right to resist foreign occupation, it has no links to alQaeda, nor has it been found to have any connection to 9/11. So an attack on Iran could not be construed as a part of the war on terror any more than our illegal invasion of Iraq.
Also, it's important to note, that what many predicted would happen in Iraq has happened. An insurgency resisting foreign occupation. A country tettering on the brink of civil war as Sunnis and Shias fight for control in the post-Saddam Iraq.
Also, it's important to note the spurious claims made by members of the Bush administration, which has reiterated it's right touse pre-emptive strikes against nations they perceive as a threat, denying this reiteration was aimed at Iran. While it claimed it was attempting to use diplomacy to diffuse the situation, it recently rejected an Iranian offer to discuss Iraq's future with the US on the grounds it may wish to discuss it's nuclear ambitions as well. John Bolton on Nightline recently stated that Iran's acquiring nuclear weapons (which, in reality is ten years off, according to US intelligence reports of November 2005) would be another "September 11". So much for a diplomatic solution. The US is instead counting on bringing the matter before the UN Security Council which is sure to be rejected by China or Russia.
While the build up to the war is in the propaganda phase, it's time to take note of whta experts are saying about our chances in Iran.
First off, it's important to note that we lack the necessary troops to occupy Iran, a country three times as large as Iraq, which we haven't had too much success occupying as it is. US Navy sailors are being stationed in Iraq to make up for shortcomings of the ground troops. In order to mainatin an occupation of three Middle Eastern countries (as we are still in Afghanistan), would a draft be necessary? A lot of people support the war now, but when their children are being put at risk, will the support for such an operation still exist?
Second, is the Bush administration taking into account the strength of the Iranian forces. Iran is not suffering now after ten years of brutal sanctions as Iraq was, they are prepared to defend themselves with a strong army and missile attacks, not only on ships, but on oilfields through out the Middle East as well.
Third, how will the price of oil be affected. prices have doubled since last year, and if Iran makes good on it's claims to close the straits of Hormuz, will oil prices double again? At over five dollars a gallon, will the US be able to continue on it's path of easy motoring and surburban living?
Most importantly, can we afford the economic costs of another war? Billions are spent monthly in Iraq, the National Debt limit has ben raised, how much more would a war with Iran cost us? Not only in terms of lost lives, but in military equpiment? Will there be more overcharges by companies granted multi-billion dollar no-bid contracts? Is it worth the cost to ease the mind of media created paranoiacs?
In the minds of the neocons, it probably is.

45 comments:

thepoetryman said...

If they did they must have been using a solar calculator around midnite in a lightless closet! :>/

earl bockenfeld said...

Hooyah! Iran is now the new Iraq. Fortunately, we've got the combined diplomatic genius of Condoleeza Rice and John Bolton spearheading the effort to avoid "confrontation." "The world is better off if tyrants know that with pre-emptive strikes they pursue W.M.D. at their own peril," the US strategy warns.

And what exactly have we pre-empted so far?
Here's the list:
1.Democratic control of the Senate after the 2002 mid-terms
2. A Democratic White House after 2004.

Ira(q/n): It's not a war -- it's a campaign commercial!

If you think that this dumb ass won’t go into Iran with weak intelligence no strategy not enough troops I’ve got a pile of shit you may believe are diamonds. Funny thing though when gas is at twenty dollars a gallon the wingnuts will be open game. We won’t have to worry about civil war in Iraq or Iran the one right here at home will be very “interesting”.

Rachel said...

Of course they haven't. How quickly people forget. The Iranias were as tough as tacks during the Iran-Iraq War. Remember the waves of suicide soldiers? This is not a disorganized society like we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iraq was little more than a patch work of religious and ethnic erruptions waiting to happen. When we removed the strong man the old hatreds came back to the surface with a vengence. You may have a divide between those who want a more tolerant regime and the hardliners, but deep down they are Iranians and they won't buy any rhetoric about how we're invading to bring them democracy. They will consider us invaders and they will respond in kind.

Iraq had a population of approximately 26,074,906. Iran ha a population of 68,017,860. Iraq has an area of approximately 444,439 square kilometers; Iran, 1.648 million square kilometers. If Bush wants to start a general mideastern war he has picked two good places to do so--in Iraq, which is falling apart more quickly which each pasisng day, in in Iran.

If Bush is foolish enough--or evil enough-- to take on Iran he will lead America to an even greater and more destructive defeat than the one he led us to in Iraq.

Donkeyhue said...

How would the "civil war" at home be interesting? You hippie pacifists dont own any guns. We'd round you up and execute y'all like the commies you are, or maybe ship you off Canada. Be careful what you wish for.

Troll Watcher said...

"We'd round you up and execute y'all like the commies you are." Spoken like a true fascist.

fosco said...

I own guns. And licenses.

Ron Nasty said...

I own a couple hunting rifles, plus a handgun as well.I can put a bullet between the eyes of a charging buck at 100 yards, a Donkey would be no problem as they are slower and dumber than a buck. I think the right tends to generalize stereotypes for us on the left, because they are all so much alike.

Donkeyhue said...

Ok so two hippies own guns...big whoop. I respond to a comment suggesting civil war and Im the bad guy? You guys sure are sensitive.

Left of Center said...

Let the Republicans win the war. After it's all done they'll be standing around wondering who is going to work. Then they will start trying to take advantage of each other trying to be at the top of the big trickle down. Meanwhile people like me will be chilling on our organic farms, drinking alittle home made beer and playing guitar on the porch.

Lew Scannon said...

What part of "round you all up and execute you" is good, Donkey? I suppose it was good when Hitler rounded up all the Jews and executed them, isn't it?
The Civil war will not be between the republicans and democrats, it will be between the ones footing the bill for the excesses of the government and those who profitted from it.

fascisthue said...

Lighten up Nancies. Are you that irrational that when I make a joke you try to debate the merits of it. Is your grasp on reality that loose? But just to clear it up for you so theres no misundersting

I am not call for the mass execution of all hippies

Get a sense of humor!!!

Anonymous said...

Nancies? Hey, my mother's name is Nancy. You can be SOOOO insensitive sometimes.

Lew Scannon said...

Hitlerhue
When is the mass execution of people considered a joke? I'm sure that would have been Hitler's excuse at the Nuremburg trials, "What's the matter, can't those Jews take a joke?" I'm sure that Milosevic was only making a joke when he committed his war crimes. Or when Saddam gassed the Kurds, he really meant to use laughing gas.It takes a really sick mind to consider murder as a joke. When you make a "joke" like that, you are really revealing your inner self. My sense of humor is fine, perhaps yours is the one that needs the work, since I would never use genocide as a joke, even against republicans.

LILY BRANFORD said...

I think that some people use inappropriate humor to make a point but I don't think sometimes they really mean to say genocide,or whatever, is funny. Funny ha-ha. No, Different purpose. I think that humor is a way to avoid emotionalism or intensity. I mean, I watch some of these shows on Comedy Central and shake my head, because I wonder what purpose it serves to make fun of things like alcoholism, child abuse, prostitution, gaybashing, war, child labor and all that. It's not easy to look at it as a way to express a "comment' about society. Gut reaction is to say "How can South Park have Cartman make chili with the pubic hair boy's parents!!!" but you have to look at it for what it is. It might not be valid to you. Eminem is not valid to some people, its a matter of viewpoint. What about elephant dung on the Virgin mary, or mocking Mohammed? When do you say something is intolerant humor? That was the point in the Isaac Hayes post. What is "acceptable fodder" and what is off limits?

I'm still getting caught up, been away.But I feel that I should respond on this one thing because as you know I am guilty of bad, bad humor.

adolph coors said...

...well not as funny as clubbing baby seals or oppressing the black man, but still pretty dang humorous.

I retract my retraction
Kill all hippies!
or at least give them showers
ba-dum-bum

LILY BRANFORD said...

Why must you taunt me with the seals? What the hell is wrong with you? Never share vulnerabilities with snakeyhue.


Kill the hatters. Then shower them. Then make bongs from their heads.

Not a NSA Spook said...

Killing can get funny if you do it enough. Sometimes it can be a fun and uplifting experience, if everything falls into place just right.

LILY BRANFORD said...

That wins the idiotic award, right there. NO, thats not the point, to say that killing is funny. Its not funny. Its about a different use of satire. Think about how many people have changed their minds because of the Daily Show! I am not talking about laughing at death. I am suggesting people understand the differences in the way people express their views. And humor can be one way to talk about social problems. Not everyone agrees with that, certainly.

This is what is damned funny:

That people whine about whats on tv and what ANIMATED characters do but they don't pay attention to the REAL violence and REAL death and REAL problems because it is far easier to talk about the worth of violence on tv and its role in culture but much harder to talk about REAL violence and where the bar ought to be set for the permissiveness of THAT.

I don't honestly give a damn if Drawn Together has Ling Ling sewing sneakers. I care about the real people sewing sneakers and to be honest, there is a real hypocrisy to these tightass criticisms by people who laugh...until its about them.

That is what is stupid. Hayes enjoys huge checks on SP when they make fun of Jesus and Jewish people and Nazis and he runs to the bank. But mention HIS religion, and he "draws the line". Thats stupid. Maybe he should give back his payouts if he's so damned offended.

NSAnything We Want Says The Law said...

So people laughing at the Daily Show could be accused of laughing at the fact that we are at war, have economic problems, etc anyone who watches these things and laughs is a hypocrite to say that certain things are off limits. Its only when its joke by somebody you hate.

Lew Scannon said...

Has the Daily Show ever made jokes about dead soldiers? "ha-ha an IED went off today, killing three soldiers, what a laugh riot". Of course not. The Daily Show makes jokes about the lies that led us into a war we will never win. And what I find hypocritical is the "pro-life" right wingers make jokes about killing people. Remember Ann Coulter's joke about poisoning a Supreme court justice?

And if "rounding up all the hippies and executing them"is your idea of a joke, you are seriously demented and should seek professional help.

Donkeyhue said...

Then I am in excellent company.

"THE FIRST THING WE DO, LET'S KILL ALL THE LAWYERS."
Henry VI

what to you tell a hippie chick with two black eyes?

nothing!
you done told them twice already

LILY BRANFORD said...

Donkeyhue, you should really take your show on the road. Why waste such hilarity on our unappreciative hippie minds?

Now I know you and realize you are just trying to bait me with a violence against women remark, and when my pink panties get tangled and I sputter you can yell hypocrite at me- "Oh, its ok to kill hatters but not punch hippie women" blah blah.

And who gave your momma two black eyes? You should do something about that.

Lew Scannon said...

Oh, so now you consider yourself on a par with Shakespeare? Not only are you demented, but deluded as well.

And now you are saying that not only do you find mass murder funny, but spousal abuse and violence against women funny as well. I suppose rape is a funny thing for you too? How about child abuse? That's probably hilarious to you, maybe you could make a joke about that. "How many cavities do abused children have? None, their parents knocked out all their teeth." You are sick and need to seek professional help for the betterment of society. Let's hope you never start to breed.

Rex Kramer, Danger Seeker said...

First of all, ease up on Donkey. I mean, why must you hate those who hate the America-haters?

That said, don't worry your flower-adorned head about the cost of war. As in Iraq, the profits made from the resulting flow of sweet, sweet oil will more than cover the cost of annexation, er, "liberation."

tp said...

And do the taxpayers paying get a rebate? Or do the profiteers just enjoy their belated payday?

Let Exxon build hospitals then. Let them pay the costs.

hypocrite exposer hue said...

Lew,
How soon you forget. Arent you the same guy that did a post on 3/4/06 about the movie 'The Aristocrats', endorsed renting it and wrote:

Here's where the comedian is allowed to freestyle, as he/she then describes the most morally depraved and explicit things one could conceive humans performing. Usually involving his whole family. After decribing in graphic detail the most degenerate things ever imagined , the agent then asks, "And what do you call yourselves?"

So essentialy you are a close minded forgetful hypocrite that attacks my type of humor when its conveniant to you because you disagree with my politics. You have been exposed as the fraud that you are. I would suggest you seek outside help...but I believe in personal accountability. However,I think its time you get to know the real inner Lew, and maybe you will stop projecting the resentment you have for yourself on others.

LILY BRANFORD said...

See I told you he was baiting!

We don't care about the inner Lew, we women only care about the outside Lew.

Lew Scannon said...

shhh Lily, he's not supposed to know thatI'm joking

without question not an NSA spook said...

hypocrite exposer has made points, none of them good, and all of them within the bounds of the terms of Oreilyism thinking. I am very conservative, not a republican, and after all that can still see the weakness in his points.
An old attage from what I have been taught says that hesitation will get you killed. This comes from the idea that a soldier will hesitate pulling the trigger on an enemy, and henceforth be killed by the same trooper.
This guy thinks he knows who you are, he thinks he knows what you are about and stand for...in fact, he knows nothing. He also can't spell, but I digress.
Anyway, on to my comments on your post.
" The IAEA has found no evidence of a weapons program in Iran."
This is like saying that because you have not caught you 14 year old son jerking off, that he will not. He has the dick and the balls, and is working on the hormones, but he says thats only so he can become a celebate catholic priest. Doesn't make sense.

" While Iran has ties to Hizbollah,defined as a terrorist group for exercising it's internationally recognized right to resist foreign occupation".

Right, and so the IRA was ok too by these measures. Its ok to kill innocents, as long as there is a political motive.

"stated that Iran's acquiring nuclear weapons (which, in reality is ten years off, according to US intelligence reports of November 2005)".
Careful speaking about what you have not experienced or known other then through the press. We thought North Korea was 10 years out too, another potential country to invade blown.
"First off, it's important to note that we lack the necessary troops to occupy Iran".
We will easily gather enough, trust me.
"would a draft be necessary?"
If so it would be due to the efforts of the anti-recruitment league.

"Second, is the Bush administration taking into account the strength of the Iranian forces. Iran is not suffering now after ten years of brutal sanctions as Iraq was, they are prepared to defend themselves with a strong army and missile attacks, not only on ships, but on oilfields through out the Middle East as well."

As cocky as it sounds, its nothing that the worlds best Air Force can't take care of, so it honestly won't be an issue.

"Most importantly, can we afford the economic costs of another war?"

Yes.

"Will there be more overcharges by companies granted multi-billion dollar no-bid contracts? "

Yes.

" Is it worth the cost?"

Yes.

earl bockenfeld said...

"Most importantly, can we afford the economic costs of another war?"
YES!


Oh yes... nothing to see here, move along, move along... just this lil tidbit of info from the Comptroller General of the US delivering this alarming barn burner: ample documents show clearly how the Republicans are bankrupting the country.

"A few nuclear bombs in Iranian hands hardly add up to a strategic threat to the United States." "But the new Iranian euro-based oil market or oil bourse as it is called has the potential to oust the dollar as the world's reserve currency, causing central banks to shift a trillion dollars or more in reserves into the euro and other destinations. That would spell immediate doom for the US stock price bubble and real estate bubble as hot money streamed out of this country. It would cut Wall Street and London out of a myriad of lucrative transactions, and deprive the US-UK combine of their ability to interfere in access to other people's oil," he added.

The current system allows the US to export unlimited supplies of dollar bills to buy goods abroad, resulting in a yearly trade deficit of $700 billion and counting. Americans should not feel threatened by the inevitable crisis of this system, since the unique US privilege of importing without producing, as world dumping ground and buyer of last resort, has cut the US standard of living in half since 1970, creating a low-wage economy.

As cocky as it sounds, its nothing that the worlds best Air Force can't take care of, so it honestly won't be an issue.

"The lunatic neocon war plan for Iran is doomed to failure, just as their Iraq adventure was." "If attacked, there is every indication Iran would cut the world oil aorta at the Straits of Hormuz, fire off missiles at Israel and other targets, and unleash Iraqi Shiites and Iranian volunteers around Basra. The position of the US and especially the UK forces there would soon become extraordinarily critical. If Russians and Chinese were killed in the raids, the stage would be set for larger confrontation. All of this would guarantee endless war and economic ruin for the US and the dollar.

The US war with Iran was actually started by the US in the 1950s when it overthrew a popularily elected and democratic governement in Iran, and installing the brutal and repessive Shah. When the Iranian popular revolution happened, the US took the Shah in and refused to hand him over. Its a bit as if Russia had offered Hitler refuge at the end of WWII. Only then did the Iranians take hostages. The war by the US on Iran was continued throughout the Iran-Iraq war when it supported Saddam Hussein, supplying him with cluster bombs, chemical weapons, and satelite photography.

We spend billions to combat bombs that people can make in their kitchens for dollars. This is a perfect example of how guerilla wars destroy empires.

without question, under no circumstances, not a tool of the NSA said...

I'm sure you know pleanty about guerilla warfare, no I'm kidding, do they teach that at Target?

Troll Watcher said...

First off, a pre-emptive strike against a nation that has not threatened us is a violation of international law, and is the same excuse Hitler used to invade Czechoslovakia. Two, we will be using nuclear weapons in our air strikes, the first time nukes have been used in an offensive manner. This will surely kill women and children and make the US more of an international pariah than it already is. The UK has already announced that it will not take any part in any armed action against Iran.More and more it becomes obvious that the true goal of "the war on terror" is really a guise for ethnic cleansing in the Middle East, putting the US in the same boat as Milosevic and Hitler, and away from being the beacon of light and hope our founding fathers had dreamed of establishing. As they look down upon us from the Heavens, their disappointment will be in misguided patriots who advocate the murder of innocent adults and children, not in those who oppose such anti-American actions by our own government.

LILY BRANFORD said...

No they do not teach that at Target nor do they teach the correct spelling of the dozens of words you butchered. I work at Target, got a problem with that?

If you do bring it on.

Lew Scannon said...

It is interesting that while nsa spook claims not to be a conservative, his words and thoughts are right in jackbooted step with the fascist imperialist designs of the PNAC. However misguided his thinking may be, I'm sure in his delusions he feels that he is being a partiot, because America is a force for good in the world, when in fact our actions belie that notion. We have tortured innocents, we have locked people up with out due process, we have struck pre-emptively, we have unleashed chemical and nuclear weapons on populations, and have pledged to continue to do so, all in the name of peace, which if not Orwellian, then at least coexisting with Nazi propaganda of repeating he same lie over and over again. We are engaging in a world war to conquer the world's resources, not for the good of the world but to line the pockets of the wealthy corporations at the blood expense of the misinformed American soldier.We cannot be spreading Democracy if we are no longer a democracy ourselves, the present administration now writing laws it signs instead of allowing Congress to do so, all justified by a war policy set in play by imperialist ambitions as opposed to promoting "freedom" and "justice". And they are ready to openly murder every man woman child or baby that stands in their way, in direct contrast to the "pro-life" values they themselves have espoused to gain control of the great American war machine. And all this cost is being burdened upon the American people for generations to come, forcing them into servitude of those who hold the paper on our debts.And all this has done is transformed US servicemen from the noble warriors of WWII into the oppressive baby killing thugs of the New World Order.

earl bockenfeld said...

Killing for peace, is exactly like fucking for virginity. What BushCo talks about as "spreading Democracy", is what on the farm where I came from, is calling "spreading bullshit". On the farm the bullshit makes the crops grow, but the BushCo bullshit only makes for death and destruction in the Middle East and ruin for America.

No Blood for Hubris said...

From an recent interview with an Arabic Middle Eastern scholar on what Bush hath wrought: Bush's legacy "will please only Bin Laden."

Rory Shock said...

that always happens to me here ... got done reading the comments and I can't frickin's remember what the post was about ... but enjoyed gettin' here ...

NSA spook said...

Lew,
Don't hate the player, hate the game.

Lew Scannon said...

There would be no game if there were no players to play it.

NSA spook said...

But if there were no game,and no players, and none to watch it on tv, how would any money be made. Come to to grips with the reality of capitalism Lew. We do things for money and we always have.

Lew Scannon said...

Killing for money. What a noble cause. Isn't capitalism the greatest thing in the world?

rivermomma said...

Most people do things for money. Not all people. Money won't bring back these sons and daughters, and will be no comfort to the families.

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